Agent Will

Documenting Life and Real Estate in Vancouver
 

August 2010 Vancouver Real Estate Stats Released

August has come and gone and with it the trend for lower sales and lower listings continued. As bad as some may think it is (and it is bad) it is not 2008 all over again. It’s somewhere between 2008 and 2009. That would make it pretty close to “meh”. Not the worst ever and [...]

July 2010 Vancouver Real Estate Stats Released

The fireworks may have been going off in English Bay, the pride banners may have been waved loud and proud, and the backyard BBQ’s may have been sizzling all this July but Real Estate in this city has been about as dry as our weather. Let’s get the mixed (whuh? Huh? Mixed?) news out of [...]

2009: The Year No One Expected

Where does the time go?  And what a difference a year makes! At the end of 2008 we were all panicking that a new depression was bearing down on us, retail sales were down, profits down, layoffs up, and no one who watched any mainstream news was out shopping for a home.  Prices had plummeted [...]

Mobile House Hunting is just too Cool – iPhone Ap...

Got an iPhone? How about an Android based phone such as the HTC Magic? No? Me neither. But I sure do want one. Especially now. The property search provider, MyRealPage, whom I use to deliver outstanding search functions on this site has now gone mobile with the release of their iPhone/Android applications. If you do [...]


August 2010 Vancouver Real Estate Stats Released

August has come and gone and with it the trend for lower sales and lower listings continued.

As bad as some may think it is (and it is bad) it is not 2008 all over again. It’s somewhere between 2008 and 2009. That would make it pretty close to “meh”. Not the worst ever and not the best ever. OK, it is the second worst ever (2008 was worst) but with the lack of new listings coming on and with the amount of listings coming off we have a very good Sales/Listings ratio (bad/bad – so I guess this is a “balanced market”) and prices which have, for the most part, remained relatively stable. Why “meh”? Because it is simply boring.

Choice is limited out there and that has buoyed the prices for now. Demand for housing is at a low and were the listings to pile on you would likely see drastic price reductions as a result of sellers competing for the diminished pool of buyers.

That said, interest rates have continued their march down with 5yr fixed rates now available 3.59% and variables at 1.95%. The posted rate for those with less than 20% down are sitting at 5.39% (down almost a full point since the April 19th rules changes) which has been increasing the pool of available funds to buyers. I suspect this has helped prop up prices.

What are we seeing out there that is not in the stats pack? A true and varied mix. I’ve seen $2.6m houses sell for $2.8m, $640k townhomes sell for $675k, and others go the opposite way with a $1.1m house sell for $875k. Meanwhile the Olympic Village continues to have serious difficulties moving (they’re about $250-300/sq.ft. too expensive). I’ve also seen brand new condos asking 2.3m but told I could get it for $1.9m including HST. Yes, we’re all over the map.

It’s a slow market, for sure, but not one without buyers who are serious. To sellers who get an offer my advice is to work diligently to get it firmed up. To buyers out there my advice is to take advantage of the uncertainty by making offers that favour you. It may take a few attempts before you find the right place but there have been some very wide margins between asking and selling prices so don’t be afraid to try.

POTD Backstreet Boys Square Dance



POTD Backstreet Boys Square Dance, originally uploaded by agentwill.

Ummmmm. Ok.

July 2010 Vancouver Real Estate Stats Released

The fireworks may have been going off in English Bay, the pride banners may have been waved loud and proud, and the backyard BBQ’s may have been sizzling all this July but Real Estate in this city has been about as dry as our weather. Let’s get the mixed (whuh? Huh? Mixed?) news out of the way:

Absolute Fact: Second worst July over the past decade when speaking in terms of volume; only slightly beating out confidence destroying recession filled gloomy 2008.

Absolute Fact: Average of 45 Days on Market so it is taking longer to sell and Buyers are finding much more choice.

Absolute Fact: Listings volume has been declining for the past three months since peaking in April.

Absolute Fact: Prices are up or down depending where you are looking.

Now before any one starts digging deeper into the stats we’re going to see just how mixed these numbers are.

The Benchmark residential price dropped a further $3k to $577k.
Port Moody Detached Benchmark took the biggest hit down $65k!
West Vancouver Detached Benchmark down $53k

And yet:
Coquitlam’s Benchmark price is up by $13k month over month.
New Westminster is up $22k
North Vancouver is up $27k
Vancouver West is up $22k
West Vancouver Condos are up $51k

And on and on. Pretty mixed up, I’d say.

Look at the sales numbers. The volume is terrible for the most part. Sales are down volume-wise by about 45%. This goes for almost all areas – but not ALL areas. Sales were actually up for West Van attached, East Van Apartments, Squamish Apartments, Port Moody Detached, and Coquitlam Attached. Maybe not by much but the board wasn’t all red. And that is month over month. So maybe a few bright spots, still.

And for those who think that the fewer sales are resulting in lower prices, well, we’ve seen that the benchmark prices are mixed and now I can tell you that the median prices are mixed as well. Some are up significantly. Some are down significantly. The average is mixed across the board as well. Down $29k for detached, down $40k for attached, and up $15k for apartments.

This wasn’t a key month. This didn’t turn the tide (that happened a couple of months ago when things stopped just going up). This was a month that marched on along a mixed up trend where buyers are still buying and those who can’t sell took their properties off the market. We’re down in total available listings by over 1000 units from peak this year and the trend doesn’t look to improve there anytime soon.

What will happen next? Stay tuned. It really is anyone’s guess just what will happen. Care to state yours?

Rules for stating your prediction:
1) Price – up or down and by what % or you can say “flat/mixed”
2) By when
3) Why you think so.

POTD Classical Dog



POTD Classical Dog, originally uploaded by agentwill.

How cool is this dog? He sits calmly in a bike sidecar listening to classical music.

June 2010 Vancouver Real Estate Stats Released

The June Stats are out! The June Stats are out!

Snooze.

Or not?

While much was to be expected the numbers are surprising:
- Greater Vancouver Benchmark dropped $10k
- Vancouver West’s Detached Benchmark lead the drop by about $90k (and that’s just one month!) which represents over 5% of May’s values.
- Prices down by the HPI benchmark across the board.
- West Vancouver Apartments dropped $77k on the HPI which represents 11.5%! Is that number for real?
- Some areas went up but so little as to be negligible. Burnaby is doing well (and I see that every day since I live there).

There were some surprises:
- The average price was UP! Detached was up $15k, Attached up $28k!
- Apartments were down by $14k, about 3% (lead by the slumbering downtown market where most listings are). Remember that they had risen 5% in May on average which puts them just $1000 above April’s average.

As REBGV President Jake Moldowan said, “There has been less upward pressure on prices in our market the last few months, which has allowed prices to ease back from the record high numbers seen in April.”

And that’s really the key point to look at: Prices have eased from the RECORD high set in April. Bears will say that the slide has started since the new mortgage regulations came in (no argument there) and that this last blast of sales activity is derived from HST fears (possibly).

The supply and demand folk will point out that listings activity has dropped off (down 21% from May). That’s one side of the equation which may be countering the decline in buyer activity (and ability). We certainly see that with regards to the average price (the amount buyers are spending).

So which metric do you believe? The HPI, a complex REBGV metric, is down while the average is up. I guess if we look at those two being on opposite ends of the spectrum it really is a balanced market (ha!)

Either way, the rate of adding listings has dropped off and the question now is whether this was just a June breather or if we’ll continue to follow the 2008 trend and have a burst shortly.

Sellers have to be serious if they want to sell. That said, there are many completions going through right now in new buildings (Millennium Water, Atelier) where the prices contracted in presale are far greater than their market value today. The potential sellers I have spoken with have opted to rent out their units and take a small loss each month rather than a giant loss off the bat. Mathematically it works out to about 10 years of monthly losses before they equal the loss they would incur if selling today. So we may not see a rush of listings from these buildings. Those in the black thinking there is no more upside to be had may benefit from sharpened pencils and welcome negotiations.

Olympic Village Taking Possession… or Not?

The CBC has reported late last night that 11 purchasers at the Olympic Village, otherwise known as Millennium Water, have contacted a lawyer to get out of their agreements.

The details are not exactly clear but some of the reasons given by their lawyer were:

The buyers are unhappy that there’s a parking lot where there was supposed to be a park, that washers and dryers have not been installed in their units and that their $5,000 fireplaces are defective

Let’s dissect that.
A parking lot in place of a park – There was no promise a park would be there. It is, if I am thinking of the same lot, outside the grounds of the development to the East. It was turned into a parking lot when it was used for staging the Olympics. The park that is to be there was “Proposed”. I know the contracts for the Olympic Village and this argument holds no water.

$5000 fireplaces are defective. Really? They cost $5000? What kind of fireplace are they? In any case, this is a deficiency that should have been noted in the pre-completion walk-through, and will be addressed within the year. Most developers have a one year time span in which they must complete all noted deficiencies. This argument holds no water.

Washers and Dryers have not been installed. Well, that’s just bad form. I don’t think that’s a justifiable reason to get out of the contract, though.

The real reason, I suspect, for these “buyers” to want to get out of the contract is contained within this quote:

Give us our money back and sell them to someone else who wants to live there. My people don’t want to live there.

And that is certainly no valid reason to get out of the contract.

Now, enough about digging into what is a likely a far too abbreviated article. I’m sure these were just some juicy, easy, simple quotes strung together to form what passes for “journalism” these days. I mean, even Bob Rennie’s response was pathetic as it was portrayed and I am sure the marketing kingpin said much more than just:

“We have buyers going, ‘Wow, I love the hardwood floors and the view and the Sub-Zero [fridge],’” said Rennie

That said, could Millennium, Rennie, and whoever else was involved have handled the completions and possessions better?

ABSOLUTELY

I was with a couple on Wednesday, June 23rd, who, on June 22nd, had completed on a unit at 123 West 1st. Their mortgage had gone through and they were paying interest. They went to pick up their keys and welcome packages in the lobby of 181 West 1st – a completed building, by the way, which must be so exciting for the new owners to have their lobby transformed into a welcome centre (end sarcasm). With keys in hand we walked the block to the building. Up the elevator we went and the tension builds as the owners, thrilled to be seeing their completed condo for the first time, unlock the door. The thrills ended there. We were greeted with the following:
- Cat5 cable and phone jack hanging out of the wall, no plate.
- Flooring not finished with the edges not completed next to the Solarium.
- No door knob on the bathroom door.
- Clothes Dryer sitting in the living room – not hooked up.

This is unacceptable. It is completely unprofessional. It is astonishingly bad form. How could the developer say that completion would be June 22nd and be given the keys on June 23rd when the unit was not completed? These are minor issues, to be sure. A door knob, face plate, installing a dryer, and finishing the flooring takes about two hours (if one person does it and they are really slow). It should have been done.

These buyers just put down A LOT (capitals needed there) of money and are being given the keys to something that does not justify that cost. Again, small things but BIG BAD IMPRESSION.

How should it have been handled?

1) Make sure before you give the keys that the suites are perfectly finished. Yes, there will be some deficiencies that won’t have been addressed yet but everything would be installed, in place, working, and ready.
2) Have an attendant present who, when they give the keys and sign over the suite, takes the clients to the property and ensures that everything is OK. This not only guides people who are not familiar with the property to their new home but shows care and desire on the part of the developer to make sure the clients are satisfied (and are able to address concerns immediately).

The big issue, I’d wager, for these 11 wanting to back out is that their circumstances have changes and they wish to sell the property, only they paid more than it is worth on the market today. It will take time to address these deficiencies and that impacts marketing as well.

Another big issue for anyone wishing to sell right away is that not only will you be competing against other sellers but the developer as well. It looks like not much has moved since the big weekend opening.

Bob Rennie was quoted saying on May 17th

The Condo King was ecstatic. He made 36 sales in two days, the highest a $4.75-million waterfront pad.

“I’m happy,” he said. “Really happy. We’re ahead of schedule.”

And on June 24th it is reported:

The 473 remaining units went on the market in May and 36 have been sold so far, according to Bob Rennie, a Vancouver condominium marketer who the city has hired on a contract for two years to sell the project

(Bold emphasis mine)

Oh oh.

POTD Fathers Day Car Show



POTD Fathers Day Car Show, originally uploaded by agentwill.

What better way to spend fathers day than with the whole family and
about 1000 classic hot rods over looking the Fraser River and
mountains? I can’t tell you how many 1930′s Fords I saw. All I know
is that I didn’t have near enough time to see half of these rides.

POTD Taking Off



POTD Taking Off, originally uploaded by agentwill.

The city really shines when people are first introduced to it by way
of landing at YVR. Taking off just gives them a quick reminder of why
they need to come back. Breathtaking views can be had both ways
(unless it’s raining).

POTD After Rain Walks



POTD After Rain Walks, originally uploaded by agentwill.

OK. I’ve come to accept that I live in a coastal rain forest area and
that means a lot of rain (still waiting for summer). It may suck that
we don’t get a tan or that sunglasses are only fashionable and not
necessary but one thing that’s great is a walk after the rain through
the woods. So calm, peaceful, and refreshing.

By the way, my daughter asks so many questions on these walks I need a
field book. Any suggestions?

POTD F is for Fish



POTD F is for Fish, originally uploaded by agentwill.

They got these great big stone alphabet blocks down at the Olympic
Village park. Very cool design.