Agent Will

How’s that for a title?  You’re about to learn two new words with one post.  And they both mean the same thing.  Falsehoods, lies, untruths.  That is what Inveracity and Canard mean.  Go ahead and use them!

And what is that picture?  Aha!  I aim to be the lighthouse shining in the dark bringing you the truth.  Not only that but as many will know “Canard” translates from French to English as “duck”.  And where is that lighthouse I just so happened to post next to us here?  Why it’s none other than the (I guess it’s famous) one on False Duck Island in Milford, Ontario.

So now that we’ve explained one of the most obscure titles and pics I’ve ever posted (had thought to turn it into a contest) let’s get to the meat of this post.

Statements are often made by realtors and the general public which have been so oft repeated that they must be true.

One such statement is that the Fall season is a busier time.  It is often said that the order of best time to sell is Spring, Fall, Summer, Winter.   Surely no one can doubt Spring is the best time. We thaw out our bones, shake out our umbrellas, look for new buds in the trees and smell the flowers starting to blossom.  Kids will get out of school soon and people start to prep for what will come in the summer holidays and new fall year.  Taxes for the past year are done and everything seems to start anew. Same goes for housing.  Spring cleaning leads to garage sales leads to new plantings and better sales.  Listings start to pick up after a slow winter and sales join in about the sixth week of the year and build for the next couple of months.

Trivia:  Which month historically has the best sales?

Answer:  May followed by March.

Trivia: What are the best seasons to sell a home in according to volume (in order from Best to Worst)?

Answer:  Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter.

What?  You mean Fall is not the second best?  No.  Not even close.  That is a total canard (see how easy it is to use that word?).  What Fall is is a busy time for listings to pick up but not sales.  Hat tip to comment contributor Jesse (love when you comment here)  on this who pushed my fingers to do an investigation when he had numbers stating that.

That chart represents all sales of all residential property in the REBGV area from August 1994 to present.  That’s 14 years of data showing a very clear trend line.  I do have another chart for each year broken out but while the trend is visible it is not as clear in demonstrating the simple fact that sales really do not pick up in Fall.

So where does this “Fall is the next best season to sell” line come from?  Unchecked reliance on various pundits, the REBGV (President David Watt repeated this line in August’s housing report), Realtors who have been told that, and newspapers who repeat the lines they are given.  I don’t blame any of them.  It sounds good.  It sounds plausible.  I mean, people take summer vacations, right? (often used basis for that argument).  And in Winter, well, no one wants to look at a home when the trees have no leaves and the stockings are hung by the chimney with care, right?

Wrong.

But thank you for taking your homes off the market or delaying your listing to the ever busy and competitive Spring.

This chart demonstrates the clear trend over 14 years of October, November, and December being great times to list homes as many take theirs off the market.  You have the highest chance of actually selling then.  Since October and November are within Fall maybe this is where the line came from.  Still, it is December that offers you the absolute best percentage chance as a new listing to sell.  that is in Winter.  Chanukah, Christmas, Ramadan, Kwanzaa, Festivus, and New Years.  No matter.  Now can you tell me of any other Realtor who has told you this?

But wait.  What if we look at Sales compared to Total Listings as a ratio ( a better metric in my mind as when a buyer looks for a home they do not just consider what was listed in the past month) then we see that Spring still reigns supreme and, yes, October and November pick up from the softening late summer market.

Why, just looking at this we see that on a ratio basis that September is the second worst month to sell (this past September has certainly not proved to be an exception to that rule).  And September is part of Fall.  Looking at this February to July is the best time to sell and the Summer months, even though in decline are the second best season.

Let’s just conclude here.  To sum up:  Spring is by far and away the best season to sell.  Summer comes next.  Fall is not by any stretch of the imagination.  September tends to be one of the worst month’s on a ratio basis and pretty average on volume.  Winter can be a great time to sell as there is less competition in the marketplace.  And you have learned two new words.  We have just shot a few tail feathers off this inveracity, or canard, if you will.

Today’s dose of cold reality was immediately picked up by the major papers, Noon news, dinner news, evening news, blogs, forums, and radio.  Far as I can tell it was right here that the details got out first with Canada.com coming in 30 minutes later.

So what do people have to say out there?

Cameron Muir, Chief Economist for the BCREA (the provincial real estate board overlords) has come out saying that a reduction in the supply will get the market going again.

 Muir thinks that what will get the market going is a supply adjustment. “This means fewer listings coming on and remaining, a process that will play out and is now underway.”
In August, the Board saw active listings decline 6.2 per cent from the previous month.

He adds in another article:

he does not foresee a U.S.-style meltdown in B.C.”We don’t have the subprime mortgage crisis they have there,” said Muir.

“There is no spike in mortgage rates on the horizon, or sharp increases expected in interest rates.”

In fact, conditions might be ripe for a reversal. Muir believes listings will decline as sellers become wary of lower sale prices and the longer time required to sell in a slow market.

“It’s going to have the effect of home sellers pulling their homes off the market and taking a wait-and-see approach themselves.”

Brian Yu, a new face on TV from the BCREA (I guess Cameron Muir was busy) calls for 12-18 months of prices remaining pretty flat (with dips and climbs along the way) as wages catch up to prices and homes become more affordable.

Tsur Sommerville of UBC’s Sauder School (he of the “off a cliff” remark last month) says:

“If you’re looking to buy, you’re not having to rush to buy,” said Tsur Sommerville, director of the Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate at UBC’s Sauder School of Business.

“It’s creating an environment of downward pressure because you’ve got a lot of product looking for buyers.”

And Pastrick, another oft quoted pundit who last month predicted a 10% decline in prices from peak, is calling for continued declines.

Pastrick expects home prices will likely continue to decline for the rest of 2008 and through 2009 in most of the Lower Mainland. “An important statistic will be the supply of homes for sale. When this number begins to shrink, the bottom is near.”

Again with the supply side argument.  Were it merely supply that had increased and sales had remained steady or at least within a respectable range I would agree with them but what we are seeing is that people are listing but few are buying.  Yes, people are buying but not in any way that indicates to me that an overabundance of listings is what is dropping prices.  Looks to me that the market (and I’ve said this for much of the year) has undergone a major shift in mindset.  Fundamentals and perceptions of value have all shifted.  Until the those two factors meet their price I do not see this market picking up, number of active listings be damned.  I’m not a big fan of Robert Shiller and his Freakonomics book (paints realtors in a bad light with a broad brush) though he certainly got it right with Irrational Exuberance and he and I can surely agree on this:

Shiller, co-founder of the S&P Case/Shiller Home Price Index, said psychology is the primary driver of bubbles, and it appears that Canada has been caught up with home-buying fever just like the United States and other countries around the world.

 Dave Watt, President of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver has been watching too much TV, methinks, with this line:

“Although the economic situation in the United States has affected consumer confidence globally, the consensus view remains that our local housing market is underpinned by solid economic fundamentals,” Watt said in a statement.

Ah, the fundamentals are strong.  So says John McCain over and over again (we know where that economy is going) and Stephen Harper (we have no idea where our economy is going) in a political ad which is played far too much.  “The fundamentals are strong” is becoming a cliche.  What are these fundamentals Mr Watt refers to?  Low interest rates, strong employment, no foreseeable interest rate hikes to come, the lowest mortgage delinquency rate in 10 years, and continued expectation of people to move here.  And if prices were in line with what most people could afford I’d be inclined to agree (oh yeah, and I’ll need that 20% hit I just took in the stock markets over the past 10 days back).

If we’re to find a silver lining then let it be that people are still buying and if you’re looking to sell go in to it to be the next sale (not the next, next one).  If you’re looking to buy, there are a lot of people who really have to sell and are not getting offers of any kind.  There may be some good opportunities out there.  Just remember that patience is a virtue, negotiations can take time, and do your research to find the best deals.

And the beat goes on…

Are you on the do not call list?  If not then you can get yourself registered https://www.lnnte-dncl.gc.ca/

More to the point do you even care about the o not call list?  I don’t.  I don’t get unsolicited phone calls except when there is an election coming up and then I get calls from all sorts of people looking for my vote (fine if the candidate calls… no value if it is one of their volunteers).  And guess what?  The do not call list does not block election calls.

I also get calls from folks like Royal Bank (I have accounts there) and from TD (I have a credit card there) trying to get me to sign up for a new account, or insurance, or whatever.  The Do Not Call list does not block those you have a business relationship with so I will still be getting calls from them, too.  Th only calls I seem to consistently get (once a month) is from SEO (search engine optimization) or Google (not affiliated with google) adwords resellers people who have no idea who or what they are talking about.

The only people I know who get a lot of sales calls are people like my Grandmother who sign up for everything and just have the word (sorry, granny) “mark” stamped on their forehead.  Well, that has mostly been taken care of since we got a little device that blocks “unknown name, unknown number” calls from ringing her phone.

Some in the real estate community are concerned that this will prevent them from drumming up new business.  Yes, it just might.  Then again, who in the real estate industry actually cold calls?  Not me.  Not anyone I know.  It is such a dead form of marketing that I do not know a single person wh does it.

Scratch that.  I have done it a couple of times but it was not without purpose.  I had a client once who was having a real hard time finding the property they wanted in the neighbourhood they wanted.  Every place listed (this was about three years ago) was selling with multiple offers and we would just miss out  Sure, the market has changed today and this isn’t really an issue anymore, but still, the place they ended up buying was a seller I spoke to on the phone about a month before.

I know there was an old guru out there who taught realtors to go out an call 100 people a day and pester and bother them, get your name known (good or bad) and lie to them saying you had a buyer or that the market was whatever.  Those days are long gone.  Thank goodness.  But this Do not Call list is going to stop me, possibly, from conducting one of the most efficient, green, and direct forms of communication even if seldom used.

I can’t imagine calling someone up out of the blue and trying to get them to list with me.  I can’t imagine anyone placing their many hundreds of thousands of dollars of trust into a cold callers hand.  But if I do have a qualified buyer, ready and willing to buy, and I can’t call on that house they want then what are my options?  Door knock or letter.

Great.  If it’s a condo then I have to post a letter.  We’re talking time to delivery, likely dismissal of the message, wasted postage, wasted paper and a most likely lask of an answer at all (a door shut is at least a door shut).

I’m not the only one who thinks the Do Not Call List is a waste of time.  Anoter group has come out saying that the end of calling will increase the amount of unsolicited junk mail flyers (Oh, hey!  There’s a way to fight that kind of mail too: http://www.reddotcampaign.ca/)

And here’s another catch that makes the DNClist not as good as it sounds.  You have to sign up for it every four years (you’ll forget but maybe that first unsolicited call will remind you) and if you change your number, of course, you need to register again.

Nw, if you’re like me, you probably won’t bother signing up. Call display does a great job of shutting these guys out and I never need to register, re-register, or care about it.

Hey all.  Just wanted to let everyone here know about this fantastic new listing that just went live in the Electric Avenue.  You can get a whole lot more detail on its dedicated page above (or click this link:  402-933 Hornby St.)

Asking $510,000 this really compares well with what else is out there and has sold recently (I don’t mess around with prices).  The home is beautiful and is absolutely brilliantly located right in the heart of downtown.  Facing East with a very large overhang, this unit has one of the largest balconies in the building (you can fit a very large BBQ on it) and can be used year round as it is very sheltered from even the rainiest of days.

The layout is fantastic and one that those who see a lot of homes will appreciate for its smart and efficient planning.  Two bedrooms, each with walk through closets to full bathrooms are on opposite sides of the living area.  The kitchen/dining/living area is all open and all three sections (living, bedroom, master bedroom) have windows onto the balcony and overlook the law courts.

As a resident owner you will appreciate the location, convenience, and amenities (private theatre, gym, meeting room, and lounge).  There is insuite laundry and parking.  While no locker is available there is plenty of storage space both in a sepatate room (cavernous is a good adjective here) and the pantry off the kitchen.  As an investor you will be very pleased to know that this is one of the easiest units to rent in the city, especially in light of continuing rental market conditions (It’s a landlord’s market).  Rents are from around $2000 unfurnished to $2800 furnished.

We’ll be having an openhouse this Friday from 10am-12pm (agents but general public is welcome too) and on Saturday from 1pm-4pm.

Got any questions or would like to book a showing?  Give me a call at 604-787-6977.

It’s been nearly two weeks since I lasted posted and it’s not for having material.  It’s merely for lack of time.  Let’s do a quick catch up on what is going on out there:

You can lead the market or follow the market

The news has been nothing but gloom in all markets be it housing or stocks.  We’ve had the biggest tumble in a single day since 9/11 just yesterday on the TSX and we’ve had gas prices go up and down like a yo-yo.  All the while Oil has dropped to $93/bbl.  If you’re like me then your holdings are not nearly what they were just a couple of weeks ago and don’t think for a minute that that is not affecting/will continue to affect the housing market.

At the same time we’ve had the big story here being that housing sales haven’t just fallen but practically “jumped off a cliff” (Tsur Sommerville, UBC, quote).  Well, sit down for some more gloom here: I think the media is under reporting it.  That’s right.  Whether they know it or not they are in fact sugar-coating a week old donut.  My research shows us actually having the second weakest August in 14 years for sales volume and sales/total listings ratio while having the second highest number of active listings.  If there is any good news to forecast it is that sales/listings ratio actually go up, way up, in the winter months as fewer listings come on and many are taken off market.  In fact sales/listings ratios in December (new listings, that is) have never been below 60% or 10% compared to total listings.  In August we were at 36% and 8.8% respectively.  If these numbers don’t follow the 14 year trend then we really are in deep.

So what can you do?  Get a realtor who doesn’t have his head in the sand, knows what is going on, follows the market, understands how to interpret stats, and has proven to get the job done recently (in the past two months at least).  You can lead the market or follow the market.  Forget what your neighbour sold for last month.  Apples to apples you likely won’t get a dollar more than them.  Instead consider that if you sell now you will likely be getting more than the home that comes after yours.  Do not chase the market down.  Lead it.

I fully believe that the gloomy news in the markets here and down south is far from over and we have yet to realize the true effects here north of the 49th.

Reality Check

Of course this is happening now.  It’s all starting to simmer (not boil) just as I am involved in the filming of a reality TV episode of House Hunters International for HGTV.  For those who do not know, the premise of the show is that a buyer looks at three properties and chooses one.  The audience is left guessing which property they chose as each will offer pros and cons.  It has certainly been an interesting and fun experience to be involved in.

Big thanks go out to Elizabeth McQueen for arranging one of the suites and to Simon Abraham for another.  We could not have done the show without their fantastic co-operation and assisstance.  I’ll keep you all posted on how the final day of shooting goes and when the episode will air (gosh, I hope it doesn’t turn ou, um, cheesy?)

So the latest stats just got released minutes ago and without further ado or comment from me (you can see my comments by reading this whole blog. I got a lot to say and none of this is new.) Here are the August 2008 Sales Statistics from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver:

542.

That’s the number of properties which were removed from the listings yesterday, August 31st.  Those numbers won’t be shown in the weekly stats until next week (Sunday).

542.

That is a huge number for one single day and equal to 1.8 times the number of sales for an entire week.

1218.

That’s the number of expired, terminated, or cancelled listings if we add yesterday to last week’s numbers.  That’s also 4x the number that sold.

Sales are continuing to fall, volume wise, and the number of properties expiring, terminating, or canceling continues to reach greater percentages of the market listings.  In fact, 8% of the active market disappeared, practically overnight.

Here’s the interpretation

Listings will not grow much beyond what we have right now for the rest of the year. We’ll have a lot of listings added but those removed increasing and those sold bouncing along it’s going to be pretty tough to grow the total listings number.  A lot of potential listers I’ve spoken with recently are taking a wait and see approach so you may not see any real movement on the listings number until next year.  Of course, we’ll go through the winter doldrums which will see a lot of properties removed from the market then.

Here’s the Heads Up

We (you, me, they) have no idea what will happen in the future.  Everyone has hunches and gut feelings… certainly opinions… but no one knows what will happen precisely.  All we can tell you is what did happen and what is happening at the moment.  If you want to sell then be really serious about it.  If you want to think about selling, don’t bother listing as you just won’t put in the effort needed to get a deal done.  If you want to buy, now is a good time to shop (I didn’t say buy, I said shop).  You may come across a really good deal or a really great opportunity for you.  You may not.  At least you’ll see what a pretty normal, even if slightly hung over, party looks like.  And pay no attention to the guy in the corner who thinks the party has just begun.  There are more interesting folks to talk to.

The title says it all.  I think we need more one-way streets.  Downtown is full of them and traffic seems to flow just a bit better when you can have at least 2 lanes in motion with both outside lanes used for parking.  We need to do the same thing for other parts of Vancouver particularly in neighbourhoods.

Here’s the problem.  Take an Avenue like 3rd in Kitsilano.  We have both East and West traffic.  We also have parking on both sides of the street.  This is not a wide street so what we end up with is akin to the Mountain Goats Puzzle with cars taking turns navigating through the now  single lane of traffic.  Then you always have the Bully who does not let you through and wants to make sure they get through first and foremost, pushing your little car to the side in whatever minor gap between parked cars there may be.

Here’s my solution.  Understanding that we need parking to accommodate all the local residents with no parking and all the shoppers/visitors to the neighbourhood we continue to allow parking on both sides of the street (all of the spaces on one side for residential permits and all the spaces on the other side limited to 2 hours unless with a resident permit or between 8pm and 7am).   Then we turn all the odd numbered avenues into one way West and all the even numbered Avenues into one way East.  North/South corridors are traveling streets with some parking but do not nearly pose the same issues as East/West corridors.  Now traffic flows smoother, you only have to worry about traffic coming from one direction when crossing the street or riding a bike, and we will have even more parking spaces for all!  Win, win, win!

It’s no secret to those who know me.  I’m a simple guy with simple tastes.  That doesn’t mean I do not have a wide variety of tastes or that I relax in seeking out the best of each.  What it means is that when it comes to me picking out something just for myself I’m more likely to go with some pretty standard fare.

There is no more quintessentially pedestrian North American food than perhaps pizza, hot dogs, and burgers.  I’ve already shared with you all what I think is the best hot dog in the cityand today I am going to share my top three best joints to get some burgers.

#3 - Veras - Various Locations

Pretty high expectations come when you have a tag-line like “You can’t beat Vera’s meat!”  Those expectations will be well met.  Believe me.  With the ability to build your own burger from a simple patty and bun to stacking it high with such rich toppings as guacamole or pineapple, Veras is sure to satisfy whatever ground beef fantasy you may have.  They are also an excellent deal, price wise.  I’ve only been to three of their locations but my favourite out of the three has got to be the one on Denman St. with it’s great people watching and proximity to the beach (because you know you’ll have to go for a jog to work off those calories sometime… wait, did I mention calories in a Burger post?  What was I thinking… go away sensibility!)

#2 - Sophie’s Cosmic Cafe - 2095 West 4th Ave, Kitsilano

More than a burger joint, this cafe harkens back to the 50’s and 60’s with comfortable booths, plenty of matching decor, and a very large menu that stretches beyond burgers (not that I have looked beyond the burger section).  Might I suggest the smoked cheddar cheese and bacon topping?  Jimmy and Sophie (the proprietors of this well established venue) are sure to be there and are two of the friendliest folks you’ll meet in the city.  So for food, comfort, and casual style Sophies takes #2.  I think I’ll have to try a breakfast there… if there isn’t a line.

and the #1 best Burger in the city in my books is (drum roll, please)

Moderne Burger - 2507 West Broadway, Kitsilano

Making a triumphant return after a fire next door closed them for a bit of time (and time to expand) is the best burger in the city.  This is a place after my own heart.  Simple.  You have five kinds of burgers (steak, turkey, veggie, salmon, or lamb) and then a variety of pretty simple toppings.  I have only had the Steak Burger with cheddar, bacon, and their own house BBQ sauce served on a fresh made bun (baked that day in house).  Let me just say that the taste is astounding.  The setting is also very simple.  Almost a sparse 50’s diner in white in soft creamy mint.  the focus here is on the food and the friendly folks.  If you haven’t been to Moderne Burger might I suggest the next time you crave a bit of meat that you head over there.

So that is my top three.  I’m sure there are more out there so if you have a place you’d highly recommend (or you think beats the pants off these guys) let us all know about it.