Comments on: Listing Volume Continues Up http://agentwill.com/statistics/listing-volume-continues-up/ Documenting Life and Real Estate in Vancouver Fri, 21 Nov 2008 22:16:24 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.2 By: Will Wertheim http://agentwill.com/statistics/listing-volume-continues-up/#comment-483 Will Wertheim Wed, 23 Apr 2008 15:30:42 +0000 http://agentwill.com/statistics/listing-volume-continues-up/#comment-483 That flip% stat is a real tough one to try to dig up. The first problem is trying to find all the assignments which are scattered across multiple sites. The clearest way to see what % are speculators are to see what comes up for sale on completion and are listed on the MLS. For an average building we see anywhere from 10-25%. There are some buildings, however, which have as many as 40-50% and that is more indicative of the project marketing than the market in general. Those marketers specifically targeted "insiders" and "speculators". Aside: The assignment market is dead. Presale prices are so high, assignment fees are exhorbitant, and the number of people who will hand over an extra 100k have pretty much dried up. That's not to mention the risk of the project not completing. That flip% stat is a real tough one to try to dig up. The first problem is trying to find all the assignments which are scattered across multiple sites. The clearest way to see what % are speculators are to see what comes up for sale on completion and are listed on the MLS. For an average building we see anywhere from 10-25%. There are some buildings, however, which have as many as 40-50% and that is more indicative of the project marketing than the market in general. Those marketers specifically targeted “insiders” and “speculators”.

Aside: The assignment market is dead. Presale prices are so high, assignment fees are exhorbitant, and the number of people who will hand over an extra 100k have pretty much dried up. That’s not to mention the risk of the project not completing.

]]> By: Real Short http://agentwill.com/statistics/listing-volume-continues-up/#comment-482 Real Short Wed, 23 Apr 2008 15:06:18 +0000 http://agentwill.com/statistics/listing-volume-continues-up/#comment-482 My place unfortunately falls under the 'average' column. We've done some nice renos but unfortunately with the low lending rates so has almost everyone else. I'm not too worried about dropping my price, but it's interesting that all my friends are like, "You need a new realtor, Vancouver is the next New York, prices will never drop and you should always sell the next day". Not verbatum... but the mentality of people our age with regards to ever increasing home values is pretty naive. I guess when predicting any major correction it's not the average home owner, like myself, that actually lives in my home and can make the payments it's all these guys: http://www.condoassignments.com/currentlistings.html Like the US, it will be the stupid people who will take the rest of us down with them. Is there any way you could dig up that stat? Maybe the number of assignments vs. 'sold out' developments. I'm not sure what the 'right' stat would be in that case. But greedy people who are still trying to flip 1/2 million dollar condos scare me. My place unfortunately falls under the ‘average’ column. We’ve done some nice renos but unfortunately with the low lending rates so has almost everyone else. I’m not too worried about dropping my price, but it’s interesting that all my friends are like, “You need a new realtor, Vancouver is the next New York, prices will never drop and you should always sell the next day”. Not verbatum… but the mentality of people our age with regards to ever increasing home values is pretty naive.

I guess when predicting any major correction it’s not the average home owner, like myself, that actually lives in my home and can make the payments it’s all these guys:
http://www.condoassignments.com/currentlistings.html

Like the US, it will be the stupid people who will take the rest of us down with them. Is there any way you could dig up that stat? Maybe the number of assignments vs. ’sold out’ developments. I’m not sure what the ‘right’ stat would be in that case. But greedy people who are still trying to flip 1/2 million dollar condos scare me.

]]> By: Will Wertheim http://agentwill.com/statistics/listing-volume-continues-up/#comment-477 Will Wertheim Tue, 22 Apr 2008 17:35:29 +0000 http://agentwill.com/statistics/listing-volume-continues-up/#comment-477 10-20%? Well, then at the rates active volume is increasing you are talking about 2-4 weeks. I don't think anyone will "start a fire" within that time frame. It's just too soon. But you are seeing price drops, including your own, which may be the start of something. At the same time I wonder how your home was priced in the first place. still see multiple offer situations and sales sometimes as much as 10% over ask for homes that were well priced (not underpriced) and well presented. As an aside, I have yet to have to do a price reduction that the Seller wasn't aware would be coming when the listing was taken. Some sellers are firm (at first) in their opinion of value. A good realtor will let them know well before signing the contract that the price is highly unlikely to be achieved and will also be firm in their valuation. They may take the listing but will do so with an understanding that the price will be reduced to whatever within a few weeks. 10-20%? Well, then at the rates active volume is increasing you are talking about 2-4 weeks. I don’t think anyone will “start a fire” within that time frame. It’s just too soon. But you are seeing price drops, including your own, which may be the start of something. At the same time I wonder how your home was priced in the first place. still see multiple offer situations and sales sometimes as much as 10% over ask for homes that were well priced (not underpriced) and well presented.

As an aside, I have yet to have to do a price reduction that the Seller wasn’t aware would be coming when the listing was taken. Some sellers are firm (at first) in their opinion of value. A good realtor will let them know well before signing the contract that the price is highly unlikely to be achieved and will also be firm in their valuation. They may take the listing but will do so with an understanding that the price will be reduced to whatever within a few weeks.

]]> By: Real Short http://agentwill.com/statistics/listing-volume-continues-up/#comment-476 Real Short Tue, 22 Apr 2008 17:12:07 +0000 http://agentwill.com/statistics/listing-volume-continues-up/#comment-476 You could be right in that we wouldn't see a 'bust' but the real question I think is how far will prices go down once the competition gets fierce. I've personally had to drop my price twice in a month, so have 1/2 of the similar listings in my area. Then factor in the speculators (and I'm sure there are a few) who can't afford NOT to sell... Yikes. What is that point I wonder... 10%? 20%? I don't think it needs to go all the way to 50% to start the fire. You could be right in that we wouldn’t see a ‘bust’ but the real question I think is how far will prices go down once the competition gets fierce. I’ve personally had to drop my price twice in a month, so have 1/2 of the similar listings in my area. Then factor in the speculators (and I’m sure there are a few) who can’t afford NOT to sell… Yikes. What is that point I wonder… 10%? 20%? I don’t think it needs to go all the way to 50% to start the fire.

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