Agent Will

How’s that for a title?  You’re about to learn two new words with one post.  And they both mean the same thing.  Falsehoods, lies, untruths.  That is what Inveracity and Canard mean.  Go ahead and use them!

And what is that picture?  Aha!  I aim to be the lighthouse shining in the dark bringing you the truth.  Not only that but as many will know “Canard” translates from French to English as “duck”.  And where is that lighthouse I just so happened to post next to us here?  Why it’s none other than the (I guess it’s famous) one on False Duck Island in Milford, Ontario.

So now that we’ve explained one of the most obscure titles and pics I’ve ever posted (had thought to turn it into a contest) let’s get to the meat of this post.

Statements are often made by realtors and the general public which have been so oft repeated that they must be true.

One such statement is that the Fall season is a busier time.  It is often said that the order of best time to sell is Spring, Fall, Summer, Winter.   Surely no one can doubt Spring is the best time. We thaw out our bones, shake out our umbrellas, look for new buds in the trees and smell the flowers starting to blossom.  Kids will get out of school soon and people start to prep for what will come in the summer holidays and new fall year.  Taxes for the past year are done and everything seems to start anew. Same goes for housing.  Spring cleaning leads to garage sales leads to new plantings and better sales.  Listings start to pick up after a slow winter and sales join in about the sixth week of the year and build for the next couple of months.

Trivia:  Which month historically has the best sales?

Answer:  May followed by March.

Trivia: What are the best seasons to sell a home in according to volume (in order from Best to Worst)?

Answer:  Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter.

What?  You mean Fall is not the second best?  No.  Not even close.  That is a total canard (see how easy it is to use that word?).  What Fall is is a busy time for listings to pick up but not sales.  Hat tip to comment contributor Jesse (love when you comment here)  on this who pushed my fingers to do an investigation when he had numbers stating that.

That chart represents all sales of all residential property in the REBGV area from August 1994 to present.  That’s 14 years of data showing a very clear trend line.  I do have another chart for each year broken out but while the trend is visible it is not as clear in demonstrating the simple fact that sales really do not pick up in Fall.

So where does this “Fall is the next best season to sell” line come from?  Unchecked reliance on various pundits, the REBGV (President David Watt repeated this line in August’s housing report), Realtors who have been told that, and newspapers who repeat the lines they are given.  I don’t blame any of them.  It sounds good.  It sounds plausible.  I mean, people take summer vacations, right? (often used basis for that argument).  And in Winter, well, no one wants to look at a home when the trees have no leaves and the stockings are hung by the chimney with care, right?

Wrong.

But thank you for taking your homes off the market or delaying your listing to the ever busy and competitive Spring.

This chart demonstrates the clear trend over 14 years of October, November, and December being great times to list homes as many take theirs off the market.  You have the highest chance of actually selling then.  Since October and November are within Fall maybe this is where the line came from.  Still, it is December that offers you the absolute best percentage chance as a new listing to sell.  that is in Winter.  Chanukah, Christmas, Ramadan, Kwanzaa, Festivus, and New Years.  No matter.  Now can you tell me of any other Realtor who has told you this?

But wait.  What if we look at Sales compared to Total Listings as a ratio ( a better metric in my mind as when a buyer looks for a home they do not just consider what was listed in the past month) then we see that Spring still reigns supreme and, yes, October and November pick up from the softening late summer market.

Why, just looking at this we see that on a ratio basis that September is the second worst month to sell (this past September has certainly not proved to be an exception to that rule).  And September is part of Fall.  Looking at this February to July is the best time to sell and the Summer months, even though in decline are the second best season.

Let’s just conclude here.  To sum up:  Spring is by far and away the best season to sell.  Summer comes next.  Fall is not by any stretch of the imagination.  September tends to be one of the worst month’s on a ratio basis and pretty average on volume.  Winter can be a great time to sell as there is less competition in the marketplace.  And you have learned two new words.  We have just shot a few tail feathers off this inveracity, or canard, if you will.