The following stats are compiled weekly and updated on Saturday/Sunday. See below the chart for an explanation of the data compilation. If you wish to embed any of these charts or graphs on another site please feel welcome to use them.
About these Statistics:
The numbers and chart you see above are generated from data provided by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. Areas included for the count are: Vancouver West, Vancouver East, Burnaby, Coquitlam, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, New Westminster, Richmond, North Vancouver, and West Vancouver. South of Richmond, East of Port Coquitlam (Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows), and North West of West Vancouver (Islands, Squamish, and Whistler) are not included.
Why did I choose to exclude some areas from the Weekly count? Simply because they are quite a distance from the core. I know there are a great many people who live out that way, and I do not wish to offend, but this site, and my business, is focused more on Vancouver and the immediate suburbs.
As you see, the numbers start from 2008 January. It is, as far as I can tell, impossible for me to get accurate numbers for previous weeks. Sorry. If you want to see past numbers in a chart look at the monthly reports released by the board. They will be provided on this site within the first week of any month. This information is updated weekly. The reason for that is numbers can vary dramatically during the week and Realtors are, expecting that the Board rules are followed, given a 72hour window to submit information. What happens on Monday may not become public until Wednesday. In addition, the hard-working fine folk at the REBGV may not be able to enter the data into the system for another day (they do get quite busy, quite often). For that alone, weekly provides a more accurate picture.
About the “Sold Units” number: These are the reported sales. In actual fact there may be more or fewer firm offers for that week specifically. These numbers come from the board which relies on the listing Realtor to provide such information. In other words, a reported sale may in fact be one from two or three weeks ago (rare, but it does happen).
About the colours: Green means an increase or a positive change from the previous week. Red means a decrease or a negative change from the previous week. Blue means no change at all. For example, if the Total Units has increased then the shade will be green. If Sold Units increases then the shade will be green. If Prices increase the shade will be green. The only category where this is inverted is with Months of Supply. If Months of Supply increase the shade will be red as this is a negative. It is a result of there being more units available to the sales occurring and a subsequent likelihood of it taing longer to sell a home in the future (a negative change).
Updated January 10th to break out the four stats into their own Year-over-Year displays and have added two new charts of Average Price movement (weekly and four week trend) for Attached and Detached properties in the Greater Vancouver areas outlined above.
Vancouver, BC 
Thanks for this weekly update. Very useful info.
Great stuff, Will. Thanks.
the supply of homes increases hugely in march/april every year.
[...] of Victoria. Vancouver is already suffering and may even see YOY price declines this month according to some analyses. If not now then almost certainly by the end of the summer. Yet Vancouver has slightly less than 4 [...]
Its about time ..market has been way to hot ..prices should be roughly half of what they are listing for ..180 to 250 per square foot.
should be!!! must I would say, but not happening yet………..perhaps may 2009 will start to see some of it……………..
Thanks for posting these stats. I return here regularly to have a look.
Thanks for posting Stats.
It would be perfect if you can delete the abnormal data when you do the calculation.
Thanks again
What “abnormal data” are you suggesting? Ones such as when a very expensive home sells (say, $13m)? and brings the average up for a week? If so, that is a tough call to make. Where do you draw the line?
I think the real value in any statistic is not the abnormal data which blips up once but the trend over the weeks/months/years. The trend is your friend, some say.
That is what I meant. When a very expensive home for sell, it will change the average price sharply.
There are many statistics ways to decrease the influence of abnormal data. Then you can draw a price tend.
That will help your blog get more attention.
Good Stats but do not show a Trend Yet
Work in the Forest Industry
Demand for Lumber outlook is poor. Inventories Increasing
Demand for Pulp outlook is poor. Inventories Increasing
Downtime is immanent in the industry am sure many more industries
Consumer confidence is way off
PRICE PER SQ FT WILL DROP BELOW 5 YEAR AVERAGE BEFORE WE HIT BOTTOM.
Take that to the bank if you can find one that is solvent
From a tech analysis standpoint, looks like a typical head and shoulders formation is forming on the average price graph. I wish I could short housing for an easy 20-30% gain.
you think housing in van will go down another 20%?
it’ll be far more than that once the olympics are over. With and avg. household income of 65K there’s no other way…except incomes triple over the next few months…
Thank you for posting these stats.
In the week ending December 27, 2008, the Attached sales of 57 and the Detached sales of 24 do not add up to the total sales listed of 96.
You’re right. Thank you for the heads up! It has been corrected.
Great stuff!! I was wondering who would pick up the ball when Paul moved on, it’s nice to see some charts again.
Summer 2009 – complete and utter insanity
Will, your stats rock.
Looks like listings are ticking back up – thoughts?
Ticking back up from historic seasonal lows don’t mean much. We’re still way below what the market needs to see balance. Demand is far outstripping supply. This is one reason why the average prices keep going up. Buyers simply have no choice.
Will,
Do you anticipate listings falling over November/December (normal seasonal slowdown)?
Usually the market (even buying) slows around now, do you think that’s will occur this year, or could we power right through with demand far outstripping supply and prices continuing to rise?
Will rising unemployment (BC’s unemployment rate just surged higher) induce more people to buy before its too late?
Ah, anticipation… let me look into my crystal ball and know that my crystal is no better nor worse than yours. Fact is that the market has been defying traditions for so many years as to question tradition altogether. As I stated in the monthly stats release post, NO ONE KNOWS what is going to happen. Looking over the past 15 years of data we are above average right now for listings coming on. We are at or near the top for sales. Demand is still outstripping supply as we are well below average for the number of active listings at this time of year. Traditionally we do experience a slowdown but that has not been the case this far.
What will the next two months bring? I’d expect a weakened tradition to show with listings drifting down and buyers, either in frustration from lack of choice or distraction with the holidays, to nod off as well. Come December 31st I’d wager we’ll see a 25% drop in listings expiring so expect January 1st to show some pathetic numbers of availables and then the hreal question must get asked… when will they (or even “will they”) list again? I ask the “Will they” as from the huge numbers we had in 2008 very few relisted in this buoyant market.
Interesting few months ahead, and yes, the Olympics will have an effect. We just don’t know what it will be (lower listings? Higher listings? Lower prices? Higher prices? Burst Bubbles/hopes? Expectations blown away?).
BC’s unemployment rate has little direct correlation to Vancouver’s housing market as we have seen. There are numerous reasonings for this but if we were to look at BC average, or even Vancouver averages for unemployment, income, etc. there’d be no explaining the housing market prices or activity aside from very low desirable supply for the demand.
Great reply, thanks Will.
Any thoughts on how the mounting job losses could impact things? EA is laying off, as is Kodak – I suspect hundreds of good paying jobs will be lost. My real concern is post-O, as job losses could gap higher.
Ooops, just saw your prior reply, no impact from job losses on Vancouver’s housing prices – OK, that is most interesting.
Great stats.
Yup, buying pressure still seems supportive of high(er) prices, much to my surprise.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFplvCb2iJo
Will,
I’m hearing credible noises about the market slowing – markedly.
I look forward to your stats in the weeks ahead to see if they reflect in the actual numbers.
Rock on.
Slowing? Yes. Pretty Seasonal, I’d say. Some issues with prices hitting affordability but prices aren’t dropping. They’re stable. Listings down (seasonal) and sales corresponding (supply restrictions). We’re still doing very well in the market for Sellers.
I’ll be adding a new stat in the coming weeks which will, I think, better reflect the odds of selling. Right now Sales/List are measured as current for the week or in comparison to all listings. A better stat, I think, would be to take the sales and see how they did to the number of new listings for the corresponding average days on market. That is, if it takes 28 days to sell then let’s take those sales and divide it by the number of new listings from four weeks ago. Those numbers would be very different. If four weeks ago there were 1000 new listings and this week there were 250 sales then the S/L ratio would be 25%. If this week there were only 500 listings the current metric would give you 50% S/L which is skewed up and inaccurate.
We’ll see how that new metric goes.
Will
What do you make of the increase in MOI?
Do you think the market will stay strong through the Olympics?
Statistically insignificant. Just as the Sale/List is an insignificant number at this time of year. We got dwindling new listings and sales that reflect, on average, homes that were listed almost 7 weeks ago. That the MOI is rising as sales also follow the downward trend means very little when there just happens to be very little to buy.
Merry Christmas Will!
Many thanks for the very useful stats and your time and efforts in producing them.
Prediction – the directionality of many of these trends changes markedly as we progress through 2010
Thank you and a Merry Christmas to you.
I’ve alluded to as much of a prediction as I feel comfortable with doing in the latest posts. Conclusion: No idea what will happen but we walk a fragile line. I find it hard to believe the market and current conditions that have created it will continue a full 365 days ahead.
Hope you enjoy the rest of the holiday season Will!
Look forward to watching things unfold as we go forward. Many thanks for your efforts to keep us informed.
Will
Do you think the rising months-of-inventory stat is purely seasonal? What is your expectation of the sell/list ratio for the next few months?
Have a great year
Yes. You’ll see an increasing Months of Inventory in December and January every year. Really low listings in December and low (but still good) sales has consistently given us 100%+ Sales/List Ratios. Still, the sales number falls (lack of supply/choice/interest/time) which leads to a higher Months of Inventory. That number is only relevant to you if you believe the sales volume will not increase.
BUT this year is a whole another animal. The Olympics are really going to throw a wrench in the market and no one really knows what is on the other side. We saw high listings volume today and I think that will continue. I think we will see some pretty strong buying but the real boom may not occur until March which might be considered a delayed spring market.
Hi Will!
Who is leading now new listings or sales (sales/list)?
thanks!
tanman chin
Funny you should ask. Listings are naturally outpacing sales but the rate that they are doing so is going to set the MOI watchers and bears on fire. We’re on pace for over 1100 new listings in the first week of the year, a new record, I believe.
tanman say that that is a trend to watch!
tanman say new records of this type will be set too!
tanman say January will be all-time record January for new listings!
tanman say thank you Will. thank you for fast reply, thank you for website. what is your area of focus? I am bear but one day will buy but i wait as market will die.
what you think?
tanman!
Will
You and the tanman have set off a lot of buzz with your comments on record listngs volumes. Interesting. Please keep us up to speed on how things are unfolding on that front.
thank you
fishy
Happy Saturday Will
Interesting comments the past week. Can you let us know how the week ended and your guesstimate on what the month ahead holds for us?
Your site is one of the best I’ve seen.
Charles.
Hello Data Hound and welcome to AW. Stats are always done after midnight Saturday Night so as to record all the expiries/terminations/cancellations.
Didn’t quite hit the 1100 new listings I expected as the pace slowed on Friday but I do measure a more core area (as outlined above under all the numbers). If you look at the entire REBGV then there were 1218 new listings.
What does this mean? It means it was a big week. Does it mean a major shift is in the works? Only time will tell. If there is a shift then you will know very quickly. However, a listing I called on today had 18 parties viewing it and it was not an openhouse… just a well priced property in a desirable hood.
Thanks Will.
I’ll check back next week to see how things are unfolding. Your stats and insights are appreciated by many.
Just figured out you’re keeping track of the stats Will! Thanks! With Paul’s stats gone it’s nice to have a place to go! I’ll continue to follow!
Should be very interesting this next few months! Especially after the March 4th FED meeting (amortizations and down payments part of the discussion?)!
Will, we await the week’s results with baited breath!
Thanks Will for the numbers, you do know that you will attract lots of Bears with listings growing like that lol.
I don’t make those numbers up. They are what they are. As to “attracting bears”, all are welcome to come and discuss. Bears especially. I love bears. Bears care. They follow and watch, not out of spite but out of a strong desire to own a functional home they can affordably maintain without suffering a lifetime of debt.
But don’t get too excited yet. To interpret those numbers as anything more than a rebound from extremely low supply at this time would be premature.
Thats right but sure gets our ears up
I know it’s too soon for a little girl bear like me to get excited, but I can’t help myself…. this month’s listings vs sales is making me giddy. I may dust off my design magazines and start fantasizing about my dream kitchen!
[...] Courtesy Agent Will [...]
Thanks Will!
Yup, I’m a bear and a future home owner, you nailed it – good ‘definition’ of a bear, I do like that.
Stats – yes, I note that total listings are still much lower than November, so we have a ways to go…but those sales numbers, wow, they’ve just gone into the tank….hopefully listings grow, sales slow (hope you have a productive business though), and prices come back to levels where they make sense. JMHO.
Thanks again, can’t wait for next week!
Sales in the tank? I wouldn’t say that. In fact, sales are quite brisk. That may not be clear looking at a hard “sales” figure or the current sales/list ratio but you have to remember that sales lag listings. Currently it takes about 7 weeks on average for the region to sell (peak last year half that) so that is why I created the S/L DOM (Sales/Listing based on Days on Market) stat. If the average is 7 weeks then let us look at how many listings there were 7 weeks ago. In that case we are around 50% S/L. Those are pretty impressive odds, I’d say. Fact is, though, that this is just another metric. While it may not be perfectly accurate it does eliminate the immediate swings that may come from big or low listings swings. The truth is somewhere inbetween. Thus, I would expect to see sales increasing quite sharply as with more choice the buyers can make decisions rather than delaying or losing on multiple offers (which is what is happening – already been through two multiples this year).
Good Points Will, thanks.
Sounds like the market is still very active.
Back to hibernation!:)
Will
Brisk sales – do you think that sell/list will go over 100% this week?
Any thoughts on how the pre Olympic market looks and if the Asians are slowing down at all with the cooling of their local (China) market (recent changes to lending practices)?
Let’s grab coffee when things slow down – its gonna happen.
Cheers, and again, great site, thanks!
Do you need S/L to go over 100% to be considered brisk? Look at this post I made: http://agentwill.com/statistics/bears-prematurely-come-out-of-hibernation/
Notice that the only months ever to see over 100% have been Nov and Dec. Anything over 50% in any month is a good month and what I would consider brisk. At the lows of of 2008 we were just over 20%.
Asians? No idea. I’ve worked with a few over the years. Looking at sales reports I see a lot of very high priced properties trading between Asian agents.
Thanks Will.
That said, I contiue to hear of slowing sales, but I imagine it varies by realtor and region.
Let’s hope we get some snow for the big O!:)
Will
With all the negative buildup of news I think the brisk sales will slow.
any thoughts on this?
I think the market slows and good realtors do well but the ranks thin.
admittedly I anxiously and excitedly await this week’s stats! bearish or bullish…we’ll know soon!
nice stats
based on your comments Will, you are quite bullish.
let’s see what time brings
thank you for the weekly update
Yes, only time will tell. Until something affects the supply of money/buyers out there or the supply of homes increases greatly we’re going to continue this trend we’re on. Current trend? I’ve been through two multiple offers this year… and I am not alone in this. S/L was about 50% today and 33% of those sales were at or above asking (indicative of multiple offers). That is a very big number and a cold reality buyers face today.
The big question is: Where are all the listings? We need about 5,000-10,000 more to slow this market down.
Thanks Will. Sounds like its still a hot market.
Listings – I agree, they remain slow – but I thought total sales looked like they were slowing and listings growing – so the net inventory to sales somewhat more balanced.
But sounds like its still rocking and rolling. Thanks for the comments, please continue to keep us posed on what you are seeing out there.
Cheers,
Tom
Hi Will
I saw a ton of OPEN HOUSE signs today. Is this a sign of listings catching up or just a normal Saturday (there did seem to be a lot of them, more than I’ve seen in some time…although not the most scientific analysis admittedly).
Any thoughts, do you see the market as still hot or cooling somewhat?
thanks
For Sale signs are increasing at a monster pace.
Interesting.
bs i agree, but as will points out still lots of buyer enthusiasm
that said i do take note of a dramatic rise in for sale signs around town and folks i’m talking to are taking indepenent notice of the same
as a future buyer i hope prices soften so i can get a reasonable deal
listings soaring
sales sliding
mix them together
equals
slowing market and soon to be plummeting prices
JMHO
Great charts Will, keep up the good work!!!
Any chance of getting a MOI chart posted?
we are at an interesting junction of history
enjoyed/appreciated your recent (feb stats) comments will, thank you.
my view is that listings inventory, while lower than the record amounts a year ago, are not that low (moi is not that low), and rising. and that late feb was likely slow based on current sales data. so, i’m not so sure the market is all that strong at the moment, and am predicting some weakness ahead.
jmho
Looks like very few listings dropped off at month-end.
Looks like listings surge is continuing – hard.
Interesting times. I would expect a sales surge between now and the end of April (not sure if pre-approved mortgages under the old rules can still buy after april 19?).
Looks to me like the market is falling apart.